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McNeal: Real estate is still an overhang for China's economy
  + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMcNeal: Real estate is still an overhang for China's economyDewardric McNeal, Managing Director and Senior Policy Analyst at Longview Global, discusses consumer demand, new tariffs, and global tensions in China.
Persons: McNeal, Dewardric McNeal Organizations: Longview Global Locations: Real, Longview, China
European markets are heading for a mixed open at the start of the new trading week, and investors will be keeping a close eye on the latest U.S. inflation figures. April's consumer price index report is due out on Wednesday, with traders hoping that a return to rate hikes is largely off the table for the U.S. Federal Reserve despite a slew of hotter-than-expected inflation prints recently. Overnight, Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors assessed China's stronger-than-expected April inflation data; China's consumer price index climbed 0.3% year on year, beating Reuters estimates of a 0.2% rise. India's inflation figures will also be out late Monday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting inflation in the world's fifth-largest economy to slow slightly to 4.8% in April, down from March's 4.85%.
Organizations: U.S . Federal, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, March's
Chinese Coast Guard vessels fire water cannons towards a Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4 on its way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024. China said the United States must refrain from "stirring up trouble" or taking sides on the South China Sea issue, after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said a security deal with the Manila extended to attacks on the Philippine coast guard. The Philippines' national security adviser called on Friday for Chinese diplomats to be expelled over an alleged leak of a phone conversation with a Filipino admiral in a significant escalation of a bitter row over the South China Sea. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian called the comments provocative and said Chinese diplomats in the Philippines had to be allowed to do their job. The report said the conversation had taken place in January and the transcript was provided by a "ranking Chinese official", which it did not name.
Persons: Shoal, Antony Blinken, Eduardo Ano, Lin Jian, Lin, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, Thomas Shoal Organizations: Guard, U.S, Philippine, U.S . State Department, Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs, Manila Times, Beijing, Reuters Locations: Philippine, South China, China, United States, Manila, Philippines, China's, Beijing
It's now focused on finding industry leaders with high free cash flow. Hong Kong-based AlphaHill Capital is looking specifically for Chinese consumer names with free cash flow growth, said Siliang Jiang, the firm's partner and portfolio manager. Jiang expects the Chinese consumer will start to turn around in the second half of this year or next year. China's "Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) edged up in the past 9 months, despite falling property prices and fears of 'household balance sheet recession '. Two of their picks based on positive free cash flow are Li Auto and New Oriental Education .
Persons: Ding Wenjie, Ding, It's, Siliang Jiang, Jiang, Li, Liqian Ren, Ren, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, China Asset Management Co, CNBC, Investors, China Merchants Securities, Baidu, Bank of America, Li Auto, New Oriental, Speed Railway, WisdomTree, Reuters Locations: China, India, Hong Kong, Tencent, Beijing, Shanghai, Shanghai . State
In this article TSLA Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTVisitors inspect a Tesla Model Y car during the 40th Thailand International Motor Expo at the Impact Challenger hall in Nonthaburi. A Trump reelection is not even necessary: the Biden administration may introduce 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs next week, according to reporting on Friday. Chinese EV makers, including BYD, have earmarked $1.44 billion in new production facilities in Southeast Asia's second-largest economy. Tesla Thailand recently rolled out a special financing program to spur more sales. Southeast Asia is a growing auto market, and Thailand is already the region's biggest car producer and exporter, with Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford, GM and Mercedes-Benz having already embraced Thailand as a regional headquarters.
Persons: Goldstein, Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, There's, Tu Le, Tesla, Le, Steven Dyer, AlixPartners, Frank, Walter Steinmeier Organizations: Tesla, Getty, Auto, Nurphoto, Nikkei, Krungsri Securities, Nikkei Asia, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, GM, Mercedes, Benz Locations: Thailand, Nonthaburi, U.S, Southeast Asia, Beijing, Detroit, China, Trump, Bangkok, Nonthaburi Province, Nikkei Asia, Southeast Asia's, Shanghai
The growth of US tech earnings is vulnerable to ongoing tensions with China. As Beijing exerts influence in the region, US tech firms will compete for a smaller market share. S&P Global data shows that for US chip firms, China is even more important for business than their home turf. AdvertisementGeopolitical tensionsAbishur Prakash, the founder of advisory firm The Geopolitical Business, told Business Insider that US tech companies ignoring the geopolitical tensions with China are risking serious setbacks to their portfolios. Experts believe that China will gradually contribute less to the revenue of mega-cap US tech firms.
Persons: , Tesla, Apple, Prakash, Elon, Kelvin Wong, walling, Jay Pelosky, Pelosky, Wong Organizations: Service, TPW, American, Nvidia, AMD Locations: China, Beijing, India, Europe, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia
Citigroup analysts upgraded India to "overweight" from "neutral" in their emerging markets allocation on Friday, citing strong earnings and economic growth momentum. It also attributed India's one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 20x, which is slightly higher than the long-term averages, to a stable earnings trajectory. The brokerage remains "overweight" on India's banks, insurers, public sector enterprises, autos and capital goods companies among others. Citi downgraded China to "neutral" from "overweight", saying the recent rally in its stock markets occurred despite weakening fundamentals. Citi reiterated its "overweight" rating on Taiwan and Korea, maintaining "underweight" on Latin American countries.
Persons: Surendra Goyal Organizations: Hong, Citigroup, Citi, Jefferies, Asia Locations: India, China, Asia Pacific, Japan, Taiwan, Korea
Citizens are shopping at a supermarket in Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu province, on March 9, 2024. China's consumer prices rose in April for a third straight month, while producer prices extended declines, suggesting resilient domestic demand, despite a shaky economic recovery. The consumer price index (CPI) edged up 0.3% in April from a year earlier, accelerating from a rise of 0.1% in March, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Saturday. CPI rose 0.1% from the previous month, reversing a drop of 1% in March and above a decline of 0.1% predicted by economists. The producer price index (PPI) dropped 2.5% in April from a year earlier, easing from a slide of 2.8% the previous month and compared with a forecast decline of 2.3%.
Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Labour, Communist Party Locations: Nanjing, East China's Jiangsu, China
But it will also add new tariffs to semiconductors and solar equipment, according to one of the people, as well as hiking EV tariffs. Chinese-made medical supplies like syringes and personal protective equipment also face additional tariffs, sources told Reuters. The long-awaited tariff update comes after a number of lawmakers have called for massive hikes on Chinese vehicle tariffs. Tariffs on Chinese EVs will roughly quadruple under the new Biden plan, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown wants the Biden administration to ban Chinese EVs outright, over concerns they pose risks to Americans' personal data.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Sherrod Brown Organizations: Gateway Technical College, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, U.S . Trade Locations: Sturtevant , Wisconsin, U.S, China
According to the business chamber's survey, just 13% view China as a top investment destination — a record low. EU firms' China operations are 'decoupling' from their headquartersIt's not just the gloomy economy and slowing demand that are weighing on investor confidence. EU firms have also started to "decouple" their operations in China as the number of foreign nationals employed locally falls. It also makes it increasingly difficult for the China operations of the EU firms to get approval from their headquarters. The European business chamber called for "full access to legitimate and trustworthy sources of economic data" in its report.
Persons: , Xi Jinping, It's, Jens Eskelund Organizations: Service, European Union Chamber of Commerce, Business Locations: Europe, France, Serbia, Hungary, China
What's more, Xi Jinping has told the Chinese military to prepare for war and said that reunification with Taiwan is inevitable. But not everyone thinks a Chinese military move is necessarily imminent. If China was actively preparing for a near-term invasion of Taiwan, Kennedy said there are a few things he might expect to see first. AdvertisementIf China does invade, the global economic impact would be huge, and despite its efforts to secure its economy, China would likely be far from unscathed. "Any action against Taiwan would be disastrous for China's economy," Chilukuri said.
Persons: , Vivek Chilukuri, Scott Kennedy, It's, Chilukuri, Xi Jinping, China's, Jinping, Kennedy, he'd Organizations: Service, Business, West, Center, New, New American Security, Center for Strategic, International Studies Locations: China, Southeast Asia, Europe, US, Taiwan, New American, United States, Russia, Ukraine, Hong Kong
Oil prices up on stronger Chinese data, Middle East conflict
  + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Oil prices rose on Friday, continuing upwards trend on the signs of improving economy in China and as negotiations to halt hostilities in the stand-off between Israel and Hamas yielded no results. In the previous session, oil prices edged up to a one-week high on data of rising crude oil imports in China in April and as investors saw the cooling U.S. job market as an indication of possible interest rate cuts. China's exports and imports returned to growth in April after contracting in the previous month, signaling an improvement in demand. "Ongoing signs of strength in demand in China should see commodity market remain well supported," ANZ Research said in a note. Daly did not say if she felt the U.S. central bank was likely or not to cut interest rates this year.
Persons: Brent, Mary Daly, Daly, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden's Organizations: U.S, West Texas, ANZ Research, San Francisco Federal, Financial Locations: China, Israel, U.S, Rafah, Gaza, Cairo
Photo: Christoph Soeder/dpa (Photo by Christoph Soeder/picture alliance via Getty Images)After years of China being Germany's main trading partner, the U.S. looks like it's quietly taking that top spot as the year progresses. Several factors played a role in the change, Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING Research, told CNBC. […] At the same time, decoupling from China, weaker domestic demand in China and China being able to produce goods it previously imported from Germany (mainly cars) reduced German exports to China," he said. China has been Germany's biggest trading partner for years, but the gap between China and the U.S. narrowed in recent years. The U.S. has also long been a bigger market for German exports than China, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, told CNBC.
Persons: Habeck, Christoph Soeder, it's, Carsten Brzeski, Holger Schmieding, China's, Schmieding Organizations: German, Getty, U.S, CNBC, Reuters, ING Research, Berenberg Bank Locations: Germany, China, U.S
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — European companies in China are finding it harder to make money in the country as growth slows and overcapacity pressures increase, according to a survey released Friday by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China. Only 30% of EU Chamber survey respondents said their profit margins were higher in China than their company's worldwide average — an eight-year low. Jens Eskelund EU Chamber of Commerce in China, presidentChina's economy is now far bigger than it was in 2015 and 2016. More than one-third of EU Chamber survey respondents said they observed overcapacity in their industry in the last year, and another 10% expect to see it in the near future. "This is not just European companies whining," Eskelund said.
Persons: Carlo D'Andrea, D'Andrea, Jens Eskelund, Eskelund, overcapacity Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, EU Chamber of Commerce, EU, of Commerce, U.S, Bureau, Statistics, Cosmetics Locations: Minhou County, Fuzhou, China, BEIJING, Shanghai, Beijing
The Biden administration is set to raise tariffs on China EVs from 25% to roughly 100%. Wedbush's Dan Ives told Bloomberg on Friday that China is very likely to retaliate against the move. Ives said rising competition from cheap Chinese EVs would pose risks to the US domestic EV market. AdvertisementChina is likely to retaliate against the move by President Joe Biden's administration to impose new tariffs on electric vehicles from China, says Wedbush's analyst Dan Ives. Legacy automakers would also take a hit given their large bets on EVs, so the tariffs would protect the Detroit car companies as well as Tesla.
Persons: Biden, Wedbush's Dan Ives, Ives, , Joe Biden's, Dan Ives, Tesla Organizations: Bloomberg, EV, Service, Street, Detroit Locations: China, Nio
BEIJING, CHINA - DECEMBER 04: A logo hangs on the building of the Beijing branch of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) on December 4, 2020 in Beijing, China. (Photo by VCG/VCG via Getty Images)Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation on Friday warned of intense competition in the chip industry after its first-quarter profit missed expectations. "Competition in the industry has been increasingly fierce and the pricing for commodity products basically follows the market trends," SMIC said on Friday during the firm's earnings call. SMIC, China's biggest contract chip manufacturer, is seen as critical to Beijing's ambitions of cutting foreign reliance in its domestic semiconductor industry as the U.S. continues to curb China's tech power. Revenue for the first quarter was $1.75 billion, up 19.7% from a year earlier, as customers stocked up on chips, SMIC said.
Persons: SMIC Organizations: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, Getty, Samsung Electronics, Revenue Locations: BEIJING, CHINA, Beijing, China, U.S, South
Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft, speaks at Gateway Technical College in Sturtevant, Wisconsin, on May 8, 2024. A House committee wants Microsoft 's top lawyer, Brad Smith, to attend a hearing this month on exploits of the company's software that resulted in hackers obtaining U.S. government officials' emails. A proposed hearing before the House Committee on Homeland Security, at 10 a.m. But Smith might not necessarily show up at the time the committee asked about in a letter it sent him on Thursday. Committee chairman Mark Green, R-Tenn., and Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., said in their letter inviting Smith to the hearing that they were encouraged by the company's plans to overhaul its security practices.
Persons: Brad Smith, Gina Raimondo, Don Bacon, Nicholas Burns, Smith, We're, Satya Nadella, Charlie Bell, Mark Green, Bennie Thompson, Green, Thompson, Chris Krebs Organizations: Microsoft, Gateway Technical College, Homeland Security, Rep, CNBC Locations: Sturtevant , Wisconsin, Washington, U.S, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBehind the momentum in China market is a 'very great EV story,' analyst saysZerlina Zeng, senior credit analyst at CreditSights, discusses China's electric vehicle sector, and says "it's probably a great equity story in the short term, but over the medium to long term we are a bit concerned on the credit fundamental front."
Persons: Zerlina Zeng, it's Locations: China
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported that the US government is set to impose new tariffs on a range of Chinese industries, including EVs. Chinese EV producers such as BYD have so far largely avoided the US market due to pre-existing trade barriers, such as a 25% tariff on Chinese auto imports previously touted by President Donald Trump. AdvertisementRelief for US firmsThe expected decision to target China's EV exports would come as a relief to US EV companies. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier this year that Chinese EV firms would "demolish" their Western rivals if trade barriers weren't put in place.
Persons: , Joe Biden, Donald Trump, he's, Elon Musk, Trump Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Reuters, EV, Chery Locations: Mexico
Read previewUS bases and aircraft in the Pacific are facing intense threat from Chinese missiles, and the Pentagon isn't doing enough to counter that challenge, according to American lawmakers. In a Wednesday letter to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro, 13 members of Congress pointed out glaring vulnerabilities in the Pacific region and demanded "immediate changes." A U.S. Air Force Rockwell B-1B Lancer (L) and a Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker (R) sit on the tarmac at Andersen Air Force base on August 17, 2017, in Yigo, Guam. Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesIn the letter, lawmakers note that many of the US bases in the Pacific remain unhardened, leaving aircraft and assets vulnerable to missile strikes. Notably, none of the US shelters were in Guam — home to Andersen Air Force Base which routinely hosts American bombers.
Persons: , Frank Kendall, Carlos Del Toro, John Moolenaar, Justin Sullivan, Tom Shugart, Timothy A, Walton, Andy Wong Organizations: Service, Pentagon, Air Force, Business, Department of Defense, Chinese Communist Party Rep, Commonwealth of, Pacific ., U.S . Air Force Rockwell, Boeing KC, Andersen Air Force, US, Center, New, New American Security, Hudson Institute, Andersen Air Force Base, American, People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, Lawmakers, Rocket Force, China's Locations: Pacific, China, Okinawa, Guam, Commonwealth, Northern Mariana, U.S, Yigo, New American, Shugart, Tiananmen, Beijing
Aly Song | ReutersBEIJING — China's customs agency released data Thursday that showed exports rose in-line with expectations in April, while imports surged ahead of forecasts. Worldwide, China's exports rose by 1.5% year-on-year in April in U.S. dollar terms, while imports climbed by 8.4%, the data showed. China's exports to ASEAN rose by 8% in April from a year ago, while imports rose by 5%. In April, China's imports and exports of integrated circuits rose from a year ago, the data showed. By volume, China's exports of cars, LCD panel displays and home appliances rose, while exports of cellphones fell slightly.
Persons: Aly Song Organizations: Reuters, CNBC, U.S, Association of Southeast, ASEAN Locations: Yangshan, Shanghai, China, Reuters BEIJING, U.S, Union, Russia, Nations, Vietnam, Mexico
Elon Musk appears focused on reinforcing Tesla's China business. AdvertisementTesla is facing tougher years ahead in the Chinese market, and it couldn't come at a worse time for the company. AdvertisementAfter years of steady growth in China, Tesla's sales are slippingTesla sold 62,167 cars in China in April, down 18% from a year ago, according to data released Tuesday by the China Passenger Car Association. Inexpensive Chinese cars are also competing with Tesla in important European and Scandinavian markets, a traditional stronghold for Musk. After his latest visit to the region, Musk appears to be sending reinforcements to the Chinese market.
Persons: Tesla, Elon Musk, , Elon, BYD, China couldn't, Musk, Tom Zhu Organizations: Service, Elon Musk's, Shanghai Gigafactory, China Passenger Car Association, China, Tesla, BYD's, Ford, GM Locations: China, Shanghai, California, Mexico, Tesla's
The US could use a simple tool to strategically weaken the US dollar for economic gains. A reduction in the federal deficit would help tame inflation and weaken the US dollar. AdvertisementThat's why a weakening US dollar is music to the ears of American corporations, trade partners, and policymakers. That agreement devalued the US dollar, stabilized trade with Japan, and helped reduce the US trade deficit. A balanced Federal budget would help them achieve that scenario without putting the economy at risk.
Persons: , It's, isn't, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Swiss, America's, China, Accord Locations: Europe, China, Japan, Asia
Last October it removed curbs in most districts, and in March loosened restrictions on purchases of second homes. Other cities have also taken major steps to make the process of buying property easier. Changsha, the capital city of Hunan province, has also lifted home purchase curbs since last month. “The April Politburo meeting set a more supportive tone for the property sector, prioritizing the reduction of existing home inventory,” they said. “This may suggest that more local governments may be allowed to purchase homes directly from the market for social housing purposes.”
Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Geely, Hangzhou Housing Security, Real, Administration, Getty Images, homebuyers, Communist Party, UBS Locations: China, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Chengdu, China's, Sichuan, Getty Images Chengdu, Changsha, Hunan province, Evergrande, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailReal estate in mainland China remains good, says Hang Lung Properties Honorary Chair Ronnie ChanRonnie Chan, honorary chair of Hang Lung Properties, shares his thoughts on mainland China's property market and what's stopping the company from investing in Saudi Arabia.
Persons: Ronnie Chan Ronnie Chan Organizations: Hang Lung Locations: China, Saudi Arabia
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